What is the "to-hit" crit penalty?

[Manifest]

Where does it come from and how does it work?

[LoadStar81]

This is to prevent a low accuracy hit from virtually always being a crit, as would often occur in vanilla XCom 2. The engine uses a single calculation to determine miss/graze/hit/crit, so the to-hit modifier is an attempt to reduce the overrepresentation of crits on low accuracy shots, both by XCom and Advent/Alien forces.

/Not a dev, please feel free to correct me if my interprestation is inaccurate

[ConradKurze]

LoadStar81 is correct, but to expand on his explanation:

In EU/EW/LW1 the hit & crit calculation were independent. Thus with 80% Hit chance, and 50% Crit chance the net result was: 40% of shots were hits, 40% were crits, 20% misses.
In X2 it only runs one calculation, and in vanilla it does these all linearly. So 80% Hit chance, 50% Crit chance has a net result of: 30% of shots are hits, 50% are crits, 20% misses. So Crit just basically 'overlays' the hit chance directly.

In LW2 they can't change the engine the actually do the two rolls, so instead they calculate what the chances would be from the 2 independent rolls and put that data on the X2 single roll table. So this 'To Hit' penalty is basically saying 'You don't have a 100% hit chance, so not 100% of the crit value is actually being applied to the table.

There was a post on the xcom reddit that illustrated this nicely: https://www.reddit.com/r/Xcom/comments/ ... it_chance/

[Arcalane]

...except that post literally states that the game makes three rolls - the initial hit roll, a crit roll, and a dodge roll.

[Garthor]

...except that post literally states that the game does not make three rolls.

[GavinRuneblade]

...except that post literally states that the game makes three rolls - the initial hit roll, a crit roll, and a dodge roll.

Read the fine print at the bottom.

[Arcalane]

Who in their right mind says 'it makes three rolls' and then puts 'actually it doesn't' in tiny fine print at the bottom.

FWIW, it is apparently possible to do three seperate rolls; -bg- pulled it off; http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/f ... =624799134 ?

Doubt it plays nice with LW2's shot mechanics though.

[Garthor]

It doesn't matter because the possible outcomes of three separate rolls can be collapsed down into a single roll using maths. At worst, there's a small rounding error.

[mattprice516]

Who in their right mind says 'it makes three rolls' and then puts 'actually it doesn't' in tiny fine print at the bottom.

Because I'm trying to explain the mechanics to a general audience and conditional probability isn't prior knowledge I want to require for someone to understand the mechanics.

And also because I'm assuming that someone who understands conditional probability also understands that the way I describe it and the way it actually works are for all intents and purposes to the player the exact same thing mathematically and from an ingame decision-making perspective.

[Manifest]

Great, that's a good system. So if you have a 70% hit chance and 70% crit chance that's still a guaranteed hit every time you crit correct? (Well, no, cause of the graze band. But you'll hit a true hit 60% of the time, so 60% of the time it'll be a crit right?)

[sectoidfodder]

Great, that's a good system. So if you have a 70% hit chance and 70% crit chance that's still a guaranteed hit every time you crit correct? (Well, no, cause of the graze band. But you'll hit a true hit 60% of the time, so 60% of the time it'll be a crit right?)

If you mean 70%/70% as shown on the UI then yea that's a 70 crit - 0 standard hit - 30% miss breakdown. It's also an impossible scenario unless you have graze band set to 0. With the graze band, a 70 aim 100 crit shot would show "70% to hit" and "60% to crit." Your crit details would look something like:

crit chance 60%
---------------------
weapon crit 30%
flanking 40%
aggression 30%
to-hit -40%