The new hit system in LW2 has some problems, especially with crit/dodge that is negative or over a 100.
A couple of problems it that the hit chance displayed in game can be very far from the real hit chance, no display of the chance to graze and then there's the question of what the hit chance displayed should represent. Should it be 'Normal Hit'+'Crit' like vanilla or 'Normal Hit'+'Crit'+'Graze' since alot of abilities that rely on hits count graze as a hit and it is a hit just for half damage.
I've made some charts to illustrate what I'm talking about.
I've taken the to hit calculations from XComGameState_LWListenerManager.GetUpdatedHitChances and the hit/crit/graze/miss is taken from the ToHitAdjustments variable.
The charts marked with adjusted are adjusted to how the true chances look when it gets rolled for in X2AbilityToHitCalc_StandardAim.InternalRollForAbilityHit
DisplayedHit is what is displayed in the UI.
Negative crit increases your chance to hit and lovers graze. Ex 65 hit, -50 crit, 0 dodge -> 72 hit, 0 crit, 3 graze and 25 miss.
Crit over a 100 increases your chance to crit over the hit chance you had to start with. Ex 65 hit, 125 crit, 0 dodge -> 11 hit, 69 crit, 0 graze and 20 miss.
Crit
Crit adjusted
Negative dodge increases your hit chance. Ex 65 hit, 0 crit, -50 dodge -> 82 hit, 0 crit, 3 graze and 15 miss.
Dodge
Dodge adjusted
Crit = Dodge
Crit = Dodge adjusted
Some more adjusted charts for Hit 25 and 105
http://imgur.com/a/GrHoh